CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-03-23T01:25:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-03-23T01:25ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29715/-1
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME first seen to the north in SOHO LASCO C2 (appearing a few timestamps before the second northern front of 2024-03-23T01:48Z CME and earlier than the faint full halo to the SW). The CME is associated with the X1.1-class flare from Active Region 3614 centered ~N25E07 and with associated eruption seen as EUV wave in SDO AIA 193, and as a NE-SW oriented large area of dimming/post eruptive arcades centered ~around Active Region 3614. X-class flare was accompanied by/contributed to by concurrent flare from Active Region 3615 (S14E15). Combined arrival of this CME with CME: 2024-03-23T01:48Z was detected at L1 by DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-03-24T14:10Z. The arrival signature is characterized by sharp increase in B-total from 6nT to 26nT, reaching 33nT and by a jump in solar wind speed from about 550 km/s to 851 km/s, with a peak of 880 km/s and an increase in density and temperature seen at ~14:10Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-24T14:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 8.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-25T06:42Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1613.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 921.459 Acceleration: -1.58695 Duration in seconds: 191867.45 Duration in days: 2.2206881 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -1.59 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 617.0 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 25/03/2024 Time: 06:42 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 16.65 hour(s)
Difference: -16.53 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-03-23T21:31Z
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